Predicting College Completion Using PDP’s First-Year Outcomes

Session Abstract: The role of early outcome metrics in timely credential completion was analyzed using data from the Postsecondary Data Partnership. Using a large-scale, disaggregated sample of full-time fall starters from the 2016–2017 cohort, we investigated first-year credit completion ratio (CCR), first-year GPA, first-year credits earned, and persistence to the second year as key predictors of timely college completion. The session also delves into how these outcomes vary by demographic factors such as gender, race, and age at entry. We also conducted a logistic regression analysis to identify which early outcome metrics are the most robust predictors of timely completion within 100%, 150%, and 200% timeframes. This session will present the main findings of this research, providing attendees with valuable insights into how early outcomes can influence credential completion. By understanding these impacts, participants can develop strategies to potentially enhance college completion rates.

Keywords: early outcome metrics, timely completion, predictive modeling

Contributing Authors: Sarah Karamarkovich, Ph.D – Research Associate, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center